Florida market check: what the numbers actually say right now

Every few weeks someone forwards me a headline about the Florida market and asks whether it's true. Usually the answer is: partly, and not for your neighborhood. Statewide averages are useful for reporters and almost useless for a decision about one address, because the spread between a coastal condo market and an inland single-family market is enormous right now.

Here is what I'm actually watching. Active inventory has climbed steadily over the past several quarters, which means buyers have choices again. Days on market have stretched out, and a meaningful share of listings are taking a price reduction before they go under contract. Sellers who priced against last year's comps are the ones sitting.

For buyers, that combination is leverage you didn't have a couple of years ago — room to ask for repairs, a rate buydown, or a closing-cost credit without losing the house. For sellers, it means the first two weeks of exposure decide your outcome. Price it right on day one and you compete; price it on hope and you end up chasing the market down.

None of this replaces looking at your own comps. Send me your address and I'll pull the last six months of genuinely comparable sales in your area and tell you where you stand, without a pitch attached.